A monthly letter from the Heights
August 2026 · Data through July 2026 · By Jeremy Higgins
1 in 4 Pacific Heights listings end without a sale. New research points to one overlooked reason why. Plus: the Heights Trivia Challenge (dinner is on the line), the inaugural Sushi Report, and one true story from 21 years of open houses.
San Francisco is the strongest market in the Bay Area
Mortgage rates ended July at 6.77%, their highest level of the year. In most of the country, that is cooling demand. San Francisco is the exception: sales here are being driven by wealth creation more than borrowing costs, with the AI boom concentrating demand in the city itself. San Mateo County is up 10% on the year. The other eight Bay Area counties are essentially flat. San Francisco is up 25%.
Single-family homes, San Francisco · Compass August 2026 Market Outlook, data through July 2026
What it looks like in Pacific Heights
Inventory here is remarkably thin. Only 3 single-family homes were active at the end of July, all priced above $3 million, and just one sale closed during the month, at $11.1 million. The condo market tells the fuller story: Pacific Heights condos posted the second-highest price per square foot in the city, sold above asking, and went into contract faster than new listings could replace them.
One sale. Three homes for the taking. In a neighborhood of thousands of households, that is not a market, that is a waiting list. If you have ever thought "we'd sell, but only for the right number," this is what the right number's habitat looks like. Meanwhile, 1 in 4 listings here still end without a sale, which tells you the market rewards strategy, not just timing. More on that in this month's feature.
The Case for the Open House
The advice to skip them serves the agent, not the seller. After 21 years and 500+ sales, here is what I have seen — and what new research confirms.
Here is a number that surprises most people I share it with: over the past three years, 1 in 4 Pacific Heights listings ended without a sale. Not price cuts. Not slow closings. The listing was canceled or expired, and the home came off the market unsold.
In a neighborhood this desirable, that should not happen. And it is not the market's fault: even over the past 12 months, with 86% of San Francisco homes selling over asking, roughly 1 in 6 listings here still ended without a sale. One quiet contributor is a piece of advice many sellers are given: "We don't need to do open houses." You may have heard the reasons. I have been selling homes for 21 years, over 500 of them, and I want to tell you plainly: these are objections that serve the agent, not the seller.
"Only nosey neighbors show up." Good. I hope they do. Neighbors are some of the greatest marketers a listing has. They spend time with friends who would love to live near them, and they have family and co-workers who have said "let me know if anything comes up on your block." When a neighbor leaves impressed, your listing just gained a personal advocate.
"It's a safety issue." In my previous career I was in law enforcement, so I take safety seriously. But in 21 years I have not seen it play out the way it gets pitched. What I learned in that career is that presence matters. An agent who shows up prepared, engaged, and confident discourages problems before they start. An agent who sits at the table and lets people wander? That is not an open house problem. That is a hosting problem.
"Only 1% of homes sell at an open house." This statistic is broken by design. A buyer visits your home on their own at the open house, likes it, then calls their agent and comes back for a second showing. The sale gets credited to the agent showing. The visit that actually created the buyer never makes it into the stats.
Homes with a first-week open house were 36% more likely to sell within 30 days.
Carrillo, Kenney & Martinez, 2026 · George Washington & Villanova Universities
Don't take my word for it. A new study from researchers at George Washington and Villanova Universities analyzed 7 years of home sales. Homes that held an open house in the first week on market were 17 percentage points more likely to sell within 30 days, with evidence of sale prices 2 to 4% higher. Two more findings hit close to home: agents juggling many listings were less likely to host early open houses, and open houses work best where fewer competing homes hold them. Since hosting drops off at the luxury end of the market, that is an advantage sitting on the table in this neighborhood.
After 21 years and 500+ closed sales, the difference between the homes that sell quickly for strong prices and the ones that join that 1-in-4 statistic usually comes down to strategy and effort, not the market.
If you are contemplating selling, whether that is this fall or a few years out, give me a call. I'm happy to walk your home with you and give you an honest read on what it would take to sell fast and for top dollar. No pressure, no obligation (and the coffee is on me).
Jeremy Higgins
The serious stuff is up front.
This page is for the cool ones.
Win dinner. Learn something about your own street.
In April 1906, as the fire that followed the earthquake consumed most of San Francisco, it was finally stopped along one broad street — sparing nearly all of Pacific Heights. Which street held the line?
First correct answer wins dinner for two ($100 gift card to the restaurant of your choosing, though I may have opinions). Call or text me at 415-583-5121. That's the entire entry process. No forms, no newsletter signup, no catch.
One win per household per calendar year. Answer revealed in next month's issue, along with the winner's first name and block (with permission). Household members of Compass agents: you can play, but you're playing for bragging rights.
The hunt begins.
I am on a mission to find San Francisco's best sushi, one spot at a time, rated on a strict five-wasabi scale. This is a serious, rigorous, longitudinal study. It is also an excuse to eat a lot of sushi.
This is where you come in. Where should I go first? Call or text me your neighborhood favorite. If your pick makes the Report, dinner's on me if we ever share a counter.
More than once, an offer has come in that was less than perfect. Except I hosted the open house. I watched the buyers walk in, stop in the front room, and try to put on their poker faces. Too late. I had already seen how they felt about the home. When you have seen a buyer fall in love, you negotiate differently. We held firm. They came up. That is the advantage the "no open house" agents somehow never mention when they explain why open houses don't matter.
21 years in real estate. 500+ homes sold. Broker Associate, which is the license with the extra schooling. Former law enforcement, so yes, I notice things. Home is Pacific Heights, where my wife and I live with our 15-year-old (two older daughters are off at college in Santa Cruz). Found hiking, catching up with friends, or hunting the city's best sushi. And thank you to those who have passed my name along; referrals are the best compliment there is.
Thinking about selling? Start with a conversation.
I'll walk your home with you and give you a straight answer on value and timing. No pressure, no obligation.
415-583-5121 Subscribe to the ReportMarket data sourced from the Compass August 2026 San Francisco Market Outlook (data through July 2026) and NorCal MLS. The 1-in-4 and 1-in-6 figures are from an SFAR MLS export of Pacific Heights (District 7B) listings, August 2023–August 2026, pulled by Jeremy Higgins. Trivia contest is sponsored by Jeremy Higgins and is not affiliated with Compass; void where prohibited. This is not intended to solicit property already listed. Equal Housing Opportunity.