A monthly letter from the Heights
August 2026 · Published August 14, 2026 · Data through July 2026 · By Jeremy Higgins
The case for the open house, and what new university research says. Plus: the Heights Trivia Challenge (now closed), the inaugural Sushi Report, and one true story from my open houses.
I updated the mortgage rate to Freddie Mac’s July 30 survey (6.66%; the original said 6.77% without naming a source), fixed a county count (the other seven Bay Area counties, not eight), added context on the open-house study’s price estimate, removed a three-year unsold-listings figure I can’t refresh with my standard monthly data pull, marked the trivia contest closed, and updated my bio (504 homes sold over my career, as of November 2026).
San Francisco is the strongest market in the Bay Area
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.66% in Freddie Mac’s July 30 survey, its highest weekly reading of the year so far (Freddie Mac PMMS). In most of the country, that is cooling demand. San Francisco is the exception: sales here are being driven by wealth creation more than borrowing costs, with the AI boom concentrating demand in the city itself. San Mateo County is up 10% on the year. The other seven Bay Area counties are essentially flat. San Francisco is up 25%.
Single-family homes, San Francisco · Compass August 2026 Market Outlook, data through July 2026
What it looks like in Pacific Heights
Inventory here is remarkably thin. Only 3 single-family homes were active at the end of July, all priced above $3 million, and just one sale closed during the month, at $11.1 million. The condo market tells the fuller story: Pacific Heights condos posted the second-highest price per square foot in the city, sold above asking, and went into contract faster than new listings could replace them.
One sale. Three homes for the taking. In a neighborhood of thousands of households, that is not a market, that is a waiting list. If you have ever thought "we'd sell, but only for the right number," this is what the right number's habitat looks like. The market rewards strategy, not just timing. More on that in this month's feature.
The Case for the Open House
The advice to skip them serves the agent, not the seller. Here is what I have seen at open houses, and what new research suggests.
Here is a piece of advice many sellers are given: "We don't need to do open houses." You may have heard the reasons. I have been selling homes for 21 years, and I want to tell you plainly: these are objections that serve the agent, not the seller.
"Only nosey neighbors show up." Good. I hope they do. Neighbors are some of the greatest marketers a listing has. They spend time with friends who would love to live near them, and they have family and co-workers who have said "let me know if anything comes up on your block." When a neighbor leaves impressed, your listing just gained a personal advocate.
"It's a safety issue." I take safety seriously. But in 21 years I have not seen it play out the way it gets pitched. What I have learned is that presence matters. An agent who shows up prepared, engaged, and confident discourages problems before they start. An agent who sits at the table and lets people wander? That is not an open house problem. That is a hosting problem.
"Only 1% of homes sell at an open house." This statistic is broken by design. A buyer visits your home on their own at the open house, likes it, then calls their agent and comes back for a second showing. The sale gets credited to the agent showing. The visit that actually created the buyer never makes it into the stats.
Homes with a first-week open house were 36% more likely to sell within 30 days.
Carrillo, Kenney & Martinez, 2026 working paper · George Washington & Villanova Universities · Washington, D.C.-area sales
Don't take my word for it. A new working paper from researchers at George Washington and Villanova Universities analyzed Washington, D.C.-area home sales from 2018 to 2024. Homes that held an open house in the first week on market were 17 percentage points more likely to sell within 30 days. The authors also estimated sale prices 2 to 4% higher, but that price result fell just short of statistical significance, so treat it as suggestive rather than proven. The study is about the D.C. market; it doesn't tell us why any particular Pacific Heights listing did or didn't sell. Two more findings hit close to home: agents juggling many listings were less likely to host early open houses, and open houses did the most for sale speed where fewer competing homes held them. Since the paper found hosting drops off slightly at the ultra-luxury end, that is an advantage sitting on the table in this neighborhood. (Compass research summary)
In my experience, the difference between homes that sell quickly for strong prices and homes that sit usually comes down to strategy and effort.
If you are contemplating selling, whether that is this fall or a few years out, give me a call. I'm happy to walk your home with you and give you an honest read on what it would take to sell fast and for top dollar. No pressure, no obligation (and the coffee is on me).
Jeremy Higgins
The serious stuff is up front.
This page is for the cool ones.
Learn something about your own street.
In April 1906, as the fire that followed the earthquake consumed most of San Francisco, it was finally stopped along one broad street — sparing nearly all of Pacific Heights. Which street held the line?
This contest is closed. It ran with Issue 001 in August 2026. Watch for the trivia question in the next issue.
The hunt begins.
I am on a mission to find San Francisco's best sushi, one spot at a time, rated on a strict five-wasabi scale. This is a serious, rigorous, longitudinal study. It is also an excuse to eat a lot of sushi.
This is where you come in. Where should I go next? Call or text me your neighborhood favorite at 415-583-5121.
More than once, an offer has come in that was less than perfect. Except I hosted the open house. I watched the buyers walk in, stop in the front room, and try to put on their poker faces. Too late. I had already seen how they felt about the home. When you have seen a buyer fall in love, you negotiate differently. We held firm. They came up. That is the advantage the "no open house" agents somehow never mention when they explain why open houses don't matter.
21 years in real estate. 504 homes sold over my career, as of November 2026. Broker Associate, which is the license with the extra schooling. Home is Pacific Heights, where my wife and I live with our 15-year-old (two older daughters are off at college in Santa Cruz). Found hiking, catching up with friends, or hunting the city's best sushi. And thank you to those who have passed my name along; referrals are the best compliment there is.
Thinking about selling? Start with a conversation.
I'll walk your home with you and give you a straight answer on value and timing. No pressure, no obligation.
415-583-5121 Hear when a new issue is postedMarket data sourced from the Compass August 2026 San Francisco Market Outlook (data through July 2026) and NorCal MLS. Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, July 30, 2026. Open-house research: Carrillo, Kenney & Martinez (2026 working paper), as summarized by Compass. The trivia contest in this issue is closed. This is not intended to solicit property already listed. Equal Housing Opportunity.